{"id":214439,"guid_nom":"b0b904c2-ad1f-11ed-80ca-0050569a365d","isbn":"978-0-14-103459-1","nomcode":"ITD000000001327006","title":"The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) Черный лебедь. (Нассим Николас Талеб) / Книги на английском языке","publisher":"Penguin Books Ltd","is_deleted":false,"first_seen_at":"2026-10-12T07:26:26.060268Z","updated_at":"2026-10-22T02:24:14.163896Z","annotation":"","sales_text":"The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)\nWhat have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.\nЧерный лебедь. (Нассим Николас Талеб)\nЧто общего между изобретением колеса, Помпеями, крахом Уолл-Стрит, Гарри Поттером и интернетом? Почему все прогнозисты мошенники? Что любовники Екатерины Великой могут сказать нам о вероятности? Почему никогда нельзя бежать на поезд или читать газету? Эта книга целиком о Черных лебедях: случайных событиях, лежащих в основе нашей жизни, от бестселлеров до мировых катастроф. Их влияние огромно; их невозможно предсказать; однако после того, как они случаются, мы всегда пытаемся их рационализировать. 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Их влияние огромно; их невозможно предсказать; однако после того, как они случаются, мы всегда пытаемся их рационализировать. 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